La Niña likely to return in 2010: expert
July 26 - August 1, 2010
A FALL in sea temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean could create a La Niña phenomenon, bringing disasters such as floods, landslides and storms to Myanmar later this year, a weather expert has warned.
Speaking at the Myanmar Fisheries Federation on July 17, former director of the Department of Meteorology Dr Tun Lwin said the weather condition, which is related to a cooling of sea surface temperatures, could affect the late- and post-monsoon period.
Dr Tun Lwin said the possibility of La Niña has increased during July and, according to Indian expert forecasts and the United States-based International Research Institute, there is a 65 percent chance that it will occur.
“Most forecasts predict that La Niña could occur in August. According to the NASA forecast, the sea surface temperature in the central Pacific could fall 2.6 Celsius below normal temperatures. That could create a strong La Niña,” he said, referring to the US National Aeronautical and Space Agency.
The World Meteorological Organisation announced on July 6 that an El Niño condition of moderate intensity that prevailed in 2009-2010 dissipated quickly in early May, and was followed by a neutral condition from mid-May to mid-June. Sea surface temperatures fell approximately 0.5C below normal over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific in mid June, approaching a La Niña condition.
The WMO statement said that although La Niña conditions will probably develop further in the next few months, the timing and magnitude of such an event in 2010 are as yet uncertain, with no indications at this time of a particularly strong event in terms of sea-surface temperatures.
In its most recent monthly statement, issued on July 8, the US-based Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-istration said most models predicted the development of La Niña conditions in July-August of this year, continuing through early 2011.
“If La Niña develops, its intensity will peak from November to February. It can affect the late monsoon (September), post-monsoon (October-November) and winter (December- February) periods. Extreme weather situations of heavy rain, storms and falling temperatures can be expected from the impact of a strong La Niña,” Dr Tun Lwin said. He said flooding could occur in rivers around the country because of heavy rains during September-October.
“Chin, Kachin and northern Shan states and upper Sagaing and Mandalay (especially Mogok township) divisions should be alert for landslides following heavy rain, while Kachin and Shan states, and Mandalay, Magway and Bago divisions should prepare for flash floods,” he warned.
Dr Tun Lwin said untimely rains caused by a La Niña effect could affect agriculture and livestock.
The Department of Meteorology said it would release a late monsoon forecast on August 28.
The Department announced that a monsoon failure could occur in August and Kayah State and southern Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay divisions may experience less than normal rainfall in the mid-monsoon season.
