Recent floods in Bago should not happen again this year according to the Meteorology Department, which says the monsoon is retreating. Pic: Aung Tun Win

ENJOY the rains while they last because monsoon is expected to be over by the end of September, said Dr Tun Lwin, director general of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, on September 2.

“We believe that monsoon winds will withdraw from the northern part of the nations in the first 10 days of September; from the middle part of the country from September 11 to 20; and should have receded from the delta and southern part of the nation by the end of the month,” he said.

He said that if monsoon does withdraw by the end of the month as predicted, 2008 would be regarded as one of the earliest retreats in years, although it is part of an overall shrinking of the monsoon.

“Since 1978 monsoons have generally retreated earlier,” he said, adding that there were several short monsoon periods around 1998.

“We can expect another short monsoon this year but there is always the chance of storms sweeping in from the Bay of Bengal, which might bring ‘monsoonish’ conditions, which might be regarded as temporarily retarding the withdrawal,” he said.

Dr Tun Lwin said the department has announced that two low pressure fronts, stemming from the Bay of Bengal, are predicted in September.

To this end, he advised the public to carefully monitor government radio weather forecasts.

“The beginning and end of monsoon period are characterised by increased storm activity and the public should be aware of the weather forecast,” he said.
He added that typhoons originating in the South China Sea that migrate across Myanmar might also bring rain later on this year.

“We hope more rains will reach in Kayin and Mon states, as well as upper Sagaing and Tanintharyi divisions in September due to those conditions,” he said.

Dr Tun Lwin said that heavy but isolated rains from cumulonimbus clouds and thunder storms would also be symptoms of monsoon’s retreat.

He added that late monsoon period would also be would bring a vastly reduced risk of flooding along the nation’s larger rivers such as the Ayeyarwady and Chindwin. However, the risk of flooding would remain alongside the Thanlwin, Sittaung and Bago rivers.

The department predicted that the Thanlwin and Sittaung rivers would, for a short time, probably reach their warning points for a time in Hpa-an, Taungoo and Madauk townships in September.