IN the past 12 months the Bay of Bengal has produced two deadly cyclones that have caused widespread damage.

Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh on November 15, 2007, with winds of 215 kilometres per hour and a tidal surge of up to 3 metres. Total damage was estimated at US$450 million, while the official death toll reached 3447.

When cyclone Nargis formed in the bay in late April this year, many feared that the storm would make landfall in Bangladesh, causing further damage to the country barely six months after the devastation wrought by Sidr.

But over the following days Nargis changed direction and, as we all know, scored a direct hit on Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady delta and Yangon. Winds exceeded 200kph but the greatest damage was caused by a tidal surge that reached 4 metres in some places. Conservative estimates put the number of dead and missing at 138,000, while experts have said that US$1.1 billion would be needed over the next three years to restore livelihoods and assets for those affected by the disaster.

One of the most important aspects of disaster preparation is establishing an adequate warning system. Although meteorologists had accurately predicted the path that Nargis would take more than 24 hours in advance, there were problems transmitting this information to communities that lay in harm’s way.

A United Nations Development Program (UNDP) briefing paper on disaster risk reduction noted that before Nargis “the early warning system, which worked well at a macro level, could not transmit the warning to the remote communities in a timely, understandable and actionable manner”.

This sentiment was echoed by Dr Tun Lwin, the director general of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

“People didn’t know what to do when they heard our department’s announce-ments and warnings about Nargis, so many people died,” he said. “Before Nargis, we had nothing prepared for disaster risk reduction. We need to do a lot more.”

He said the department has begun working with UNDP and the Department of Social Welfare to train people on how to educate and spread awareness among those affected by natural disasters.

“We’re also planning to build tide breakers and flood prevention walls, as well as roads between villages that would help with evacuation in the event of a disaster and also facilitate access for emergency services,” said Dr Tun Lwin.

Dillip Kumar Bhanja, a disaster risk reduction specialist at UNDP, said that working out how to “translate a message into a community’s own situation” was the most important aspect of developing an early warning system.

“Even if they knew that their village was going to be hit by a cyclone, they needed a place where they could take shelter,” he said.

Mr Bhanja said that UNDP plans, in the coming months and years, to work in cooperation with relevant organisations, authorities and residents to implement a disaster risk reduction program in Myanmar, which would focus on the community level.

“These villages are totally isolated. … You cannot expect agencies or governments in any country to be present in every village and to manage disaster risks at this micro-level. It must be managed by the villagers themselves,” he said.

He said the fact that it can take hours or days for emergency personnel to arrive on the scene in the event of a disaster means that villagers must have the capacity to be self-reliant for at least two or three days.

“Also, a community-based approach to disaster risk reduction would make sure that it builds on the existing coping capacities, community resources and initiative,” Mr Bhanja said.

According to UN statistics, about 200 million people around the world have been affected by natural disasters in each of the past 10 years. Although this is seven times the number affected by conflict, only 4 percent of aid relief goes to disaster risk reduction.

Yet failure to prepare adequately for a disaster can set development back by years.

Preparation can be as simple as burying a watertight container of food in a mound of earth as soon as a warning is given, so families have access to emergency supplies in the 24 hours after a disaster, or making sure there is one radio in each village and someone willing to pass on warnings to everyone in their community.

Mr Bhanja is keen to ensure that the numerous INGOs working on relief and recovery programs in Myanmar incorporate emergency preparation programs into their work.

The country director for Save the Children, Andrew Kirkwood, pointed to the organisation’s education program as an example of how disaster risk reduction can be integrated into recovery efforts.

“There was a big correlation between the size of communities and the survival rates. In larger communities there was more likely to be a concrete building that people could shelter in. For us, a building that could provide such shelter could be schools,” he said.

Save the Children has repaired 180 schools so far.

To assist with re-construction, the organisation has brought in experts with experience in building storm-resistant structures in Vietnam, who say that just a 10 percent increase in cost can make buildings significantly stronger.

While ensuring that schools are rebuilt to withstand high wind speeds, the experts are also training local workers in various disaster risk reduction building techniques.

For example, said Mr Kirkwood, a roof built with a slope of less than 31.5 degrees is more likely to torn off by severe winds, while twisted nails are better than straight nails for holding roofs in place during storms.

“Therefore, roof angles should be measured and standardised,” he said.
Mr Bhanja said UNDP’s two-year early recovery program includes providing training in disaster risk reduction and helping create a national plan on how to better prepare for emergencies.

“Communities themselves already have their traditional coping mechanisms and we just want to build that up – very strategically, within the local context, scientifically and systematically,” he said. “Also, with our program focusing on the community level, the idea is that it links up with the national initiatives.”

Towards that end, last week UNDP held a workshop in Yangon on community-based disaster reduction with the aim of linking government and INGO initiatives, and of reflecting on lessons learnt from Nargis.

Mr Kirkwood added that the best way to reduce the impact and severity of disasters is through poverty alleviation.

“If people have more robust livelihoods, they are better prepared to withstand disasters. Anything to do with improving access to healthcare and livelihoods is in fact disaster risk reduction,” he said.