A pre-election summit of armed ethnic groups called by the United Wa State Army at its Pangkham stronghold is raising government and military concerns, particularly over China’s hidden hand across the border.

The UWSA, the largest and best equipped of Myanmar’s ethnic forces with an estimated 20,000 soldiers, convened the November 1 to 3 conference following increased Tatmadaw offensives in northern Shan State.

Invitations were extended to leaders of 11 armed ethnic groups which did not sign, or were excluded by the government from joining, the “nationwide” ceasefire agreement concluded in Nay Pyi Taw with eight other ethnic forces on October 15.

Those invited said the meeting would focus on the November 8 general elections and the current military situation in the north of Shan State.

“What I know is that we will discuss how we see the next government to take office after the elections,” Colonel Sai La, a spokesperson for the Shan State Progress Party and its military wing, the Shan State Army-North, told The Myanmar Times.

The leader of one armed ethnic group, who requested not to be named, said they would discuss how to continue the peace process with the next government.

Analysts say various complex reasons lay behind the rejection of the ceasefire pact by mostly northern groups. One factor was a belief among some that they might get a better deal under the next government if it included the National League for Democracy.

The UWSA, which has its own bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government, is said to have taken steps to develop closer ties to other armed ethnic groups, prompted by renewed fighting last year in Shan and Kachin states and this year in the Kokang area.

In May the UWSA flexed its muscles by calling a conference of 12 ethnic groups in Pangkham to discuss a draft of the nationwide ceasefire text agreed by negotiators in March, even though it had only attended the two years of talks with the government as occasional observers.

“We wanted the Wa to lead the ethnic armed bloc in negotiating peace with the government,” said the armed ethnic leader who asked not to be named.

“What we expected is that under the Wa’s leadership, we would discuss issues in a joint manner based on democratic principles. But the reality of the Wa’s leadership was that every group must follow the leader,” he said. “That’s the main problem.”

Intensified fighting between the Tatmadaw and the SSPP is also on the Pangkham agenda.

Although the UWSA and SSPP deny any links between them, U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, believes the Tatmadaw may have strategic reasons for launching military operations between the SSPP’s headquarters in Wanhai and Pangkham, which is less than 80 kilometres to the east.

“At this point the leaders of the UWSA may have their concerns,” he said, surmising that the military wanted to cut hidden ties between nearby armed groups and the Wa to get into a stronger position against the UWSA.

A Shan activist, who asked not to be named, said the ongoing Tatmadaw offensives were getting progressively more threatening to the UWSA. The latest operation against the SSPP was specifically aimed at cutting their links with Wa territories east of the Than-lwin River, the activist said, noting that the SSPP was forced on October 15 to withdraw from Ta Sam Boo on the Pang River, a main strategic crossing point leading east to the Thanlwin.

Two military aircraft were also reported to have flown over the Wanhai headquarters on October 25. “All this will definitely have sounded alarm bells for the UWSA,” the activist said.

Naing Han Thar, a senior member of the New Mon State Party, an armed group that did not sign the nationwide ceasefire, said the government was losing its credibility by escalating tensions in northern Shan.

The Tatmadaw is seen to be redeploying its forces to step up pressure on the ceasefire rejectionists – despite government assurances this would not happen.

An analyst close to the government, who asked not to be named, said the Tatmadaw was “really angry” with the UWSA and was suspicious of its backing from inside China.

He said there was a perception that the Yunnan provincial government had pushed the UWSA and other armed ethnic groups in the north not to sign the nationwide ceasefire.

“On this side, there is a bad feeling that Beijing knows what is going on but has not done enough to change the situation or turned a blind eye to what Yunnan is doing to Myanmar,” he added.

China, whose special envoy attended the ceasefire talks as an observer, denies undermining the process.

Analysts said the UWSA and its closest ally, the National Democratic Alliance Army, now fear being shut out of the political process set in motion by the nationwide ceasefire pact. The government says only armed ethnic groups that signed up would be eligible to take part in the dialogue on the future shape of a federal democratic state. Talks are supposed to begin before mid-January.

U Than Soe Naing said that the different political stances between the Wa and other groups would make cooperation between them more military than political.

“While some groups in the United Nationalities Federal Council [an alliance of ethnic groups] have consistently demanded a federal union, it is more important for the Wa to become a self-administered state,” he said.

The 12 groups attending the Pangkham meeting were also divided between those in the pro-China camp, which includes the ethnic Chinese rebels in Kokang, and those outside that circle of complex economic and political ties, he said.