In 2010, shortly before the November 7 election, U Tun Shwe, a local administrator and Union Solidarity and Development Party official from Chigwe village, Bawlakhe township, was given an unusual task: Place a tick on blank ballot forms next to the USDP logo.

The votes were later used to stuff ballot boxes, he told The Myanmar Times in Bawhlakhe earlier this week – a claim backed up to some extent by the official results, which show 77 percent of the 5261 votes received were advance votes. Nearly all went to the USDP candidate.

Since the election, U Tun Shwe has switched sides; he is now supporting the National League for Democracy campaign in Bawlakhe. “I changed because even though I helped the USDP win they just forgot about me after they won the election,” he said.

He says it is unlikely that the voting patterns in the 2010 election, which saw 60pc of all votes cast in advance – the overwhelming majority for the USDP – will be repeated.

“­I don’t think they can cheat on advance votes this year because a lot of people from different parties are watching out for it.”

Nevertheless, several election observer groups and party representatives have expressed concern about the possibility of advance votes being misused on November 8 in Kayah State.

They are also worried about the potential for local officials to influence voting decisions, along with the state’s poor road and communication infrastructure hindering access to polling stations.

U Kyaw Myo Thein, a NLD Amyotha Hluttaw candidate in Bawlakhe, said villages are often quite far from polling stations – in some cases, a 10-kilometre walk along a rough road.

But he is urging residents to make the effort to come anyway, rather than apply to cast an advance vote or not vote at all.

“We always urge people to go to the polling station on election day. It is the best way for everyone to vote, except the elderly and those with health problems that prevent them from travelling,” he said. “We are concerned because of the experience in 2010 and also because we still don’t know the full list of advance voters.”

Daw Pha Rrah Moe, 45, lives in Daw Le Du village, about 17 kilometres (10 miles) from the nearest polling station, which is in Shadaw.

She said she is still unsure how she will get to the voting booth on election day. “I heard that some group will pick us up in a truck to go to the polling station but I don’t know which group it is,” she said.

“If there are no cars to take us, we’ll walk down to Shadaw, but some of the older people won’t be able to come.”

The election laws make no mention of eligible voters being allowed to cast an advance vote due to their distance from a polling station. Only the elderly, seriously ill, those with leprosy, those giving birth, those detained in police custody or in prison but not convicted of a crime, hospital in-patients, and civil service personnel on temporary duty away from their voting station on the day of the election can cast an in-constituency advance vote. These votes are to be cast only on November 6 and 7, except for some civil servants, who can cast their vote from October 29.

It remains unclear how many people are eligible to cast advance votes will be cast in each constituency. The Union Election Commission has refused to provide numbers, saying it is the responsibility of the township sub-commissions. The Carter Center, one of three international groups monitoring the election, issued a statement on October 27 expressing concern about the lack of transparency surrounding advance voting.

The rough terrain means that many of Kayah State’s disabled voters, who are thought to number more than 10,000, will have to cast an advance vote. According to the census, Kayah State has 16,617 people living with disability, or 5.8 percent of the population, above the national average of 4.6pc.

Some advance vote numbers are known. U Kyaw Myo Thein said 431 voters from the Tatmadaw would cast a vote in advance, as well as 249 from Border Guard Forces.

“But we still have no idea about other government staff – for example, teachers who will work in polling stations – and normal people who will cast an advance vote,” he said.

According to the state election sub-commission, there are 229 polling stations in Kayah’s seven townships. Loikaw has the most voters with 84,727, followed by Demoso (49,255), Hpruso (17,386), Hpasawng (12,348), Bawlakhe (6797), Shadaw (4256) and Mese (4054).

A number of election monitoring groups are registered in the state, including the European Union, the Carter Center and the Asian Network for Free Elections and five local observation groups.

The Loikaw-based Union of Karenni State Youth, which is monitoring the election unofficially, said it is concerned about large numbers of people who have migrated overseas but remain on the electoral rolls. UKSY official ­U Kyaw Htin Aung said more than 30,000 people from Kayah State had migrated to Thailand or Malaysia for work. While the 2014 census showed only 8358 were working overseas, he said UKSY surveys found that many lied on the question because they were worried that their relatives would be taxed if the authorities found out they were earning foreign currency.

“We have to watch the voter lists carefully and see whether those working overseas are included on the list of advance voters,” he said.

One registered monitoring group, Kayan New Generation Youth, has also expressed concern about the advance votes issue, particularly for soldiers and those who have migrated to Kayah State from central Myanmar. These migrants normally come to work on private and government construction projects.

“We are concerned about advanced voting but we have to wait and see what happens,” said Khun Bernard, secretary of the KNGY.

The Kayah State election sub-commission has rejected these concerns however, insisting that it has “systematic plans” in place to ensure a free and fair election. State commission electoral officer U Kyaw San Win told The Myanmar Times in Loikaw that lists of soldiers who would cast an advance vote had already been placed on noticeboards at each of the village tract sub-commission offices.

Those who cast an in-constituency advance vote on November 6 and 7 will be listed on the noticeboards at the commission offices he said, enabling anyone to check how many registered advance voters there are and compare it with the number of advance votes received on polling day. He added that residents would not be allowed to cast an advance vote just because they live far from a polling station.

“We have already allowed all observer groups, civil society groups and media to watch the advance voting to ensure transparency in advance voting,” he said.

Candidates are mixed on whether advance votes could pose a threat. U Soe Reh, a candidate for the USDP in a Kayah State Hluttaw seat in Bawlakhe, said he had encouraged everyone to visit a polling station in person, but if it was not possible they should cast an advance vote rather than not vote at all.

“We are not concerned about advance voting fraud,” he said. “At the same time, we don’t tell people to cast an advance vote. We just explain to them that if they really can’t go to vote on election day, they have the right to cast an advance vote.”­­­

The transportation problems in Kayah State mean the number of advance votes is still likely to be high, even if the vote is conducted fairly, said Daw Wint Wah Tun, a Pyithu Hluttaw candidate for the NLD in Shadaw.

“We have seen in 2010 that there are so many ways to cheat with advance votes,” she said, “so we are worried it will happen again.”