TAUNGGYI, SHAN STATE

At the district headquarters of the Union Electoral Commission in the Shan state capital of Taunggyi, chair U Tin Oo is running an operation that appears to be a model of efficiency.

Foreign and local reporters are swiftly issued with all-area access media passes and his personal guarantee of security wherever we go, and he hands over maps with the location of every polling station marked, lists of candidates, constituencies etc, and an A5 colour brochure "Brief Notes on the Candidates and the Parties of Taunggyi Township Constituency. The General Election 8th November, 2015."

It even contains the names and contact numbers for all 17 political parties running in the township in English.

It's a notable difference from a recent visit to the equivalent office in Hpa'an, the state capital of Kayin, where facts and figures must be copied from carefully-scribed Burmese characters dutifully recorded into a single handruled notebook.

U Tin Oo says: "As for our Shan State, it is very calm, very patient, very eager to vote and not for making any noise," he says with bashful pride when complimented on his operation.

He says the results should be in by midnight on Sunday and says he'll be there all night and reporters are welcome to join.

"In the 2010 and 12 EU elections the EU people said how eager and calm we were to do voting, and that was them saying that not me," he adds.

"The weather is cold and the people are cold," he laughs.

Around two weeks ago a "small bomb" went off in Taunggyi injuring five people but no-one seems that bothered, dismissing it as a minor pre-election scare tactic by persons unknown. "We couldn't even hear it above the noise of the fireworks at the balloon festival," a driver says dismissively.

In the town the NLD seems to have overwhelming public support – at least from those willing to say who they are voting for. Not a single person who named a party when asked by The Myanmar Times said they would vote for anyone other than NLD.

At a traditional Shan restaurant in the centre of town, 18-year-old Yan Pain, is excited he will have the chance to vote for the NLD. His boss is giving him time off so can go to vote.

“I asked him and he said ‘Yes. Just go!’ I am not educated and I want that to change. That is why I am voting for the NLD.”

One international observer says he met a woman making an advanced vote who had just given birth. “Normally she would still be in confinement, but she wanted to come out and vote,” he notes.

The town has a visible Muslim population. At a small tea-shop next to the town headquarters, the 60-year-old owner says he will be voting for the NLD. “I want a free and fair election. The USDP are not so good and people cannot accept them” he says.

As with others, he is concerned there might be “cheating”.

“The USDP is worried they will lose, but if the election is free and fair the NLD will win and people will be happy on Sunday night.”

The tea-shop owner adds he believes the NLD will be the best party for Muslim voters and most popular in his community, but is not concerned about anti-Muslim tensions in his town.

Even business leaders – who are often seen as more likely to vote for the USDP – appear to be mainly backing the NLD.

“We want the NLD to win so that there will be fair competition for everyone,” says the owner of one hotel who asked not to be named. Under the current government competition is not fair.”

He adds that some people with crony connections will support the USDP, but if the election is fair the NLD will be the winner in Taunggyi and across the country.

Of the two main Shan parties he predicts the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy will be the more successful, but only in rural areas. The towns he says will go to the NLD.

International observers seem broadly satisfied with the overall preparations for the votes. There is a large international contingent in town. The Thai ambassador arrived in the region on November 5, and Singapore and Indian embassy staff are busy visiting political parties and polling stations. EU and American observers are also dashing about.

Observers note that while advance voting seems to be going smoothly, there are wide discrepancies as to how polling is being carried out. At least one stations has different boxes for government staff and officials and members of the military to post their votes.

Also there is confusion about when advance voting will end.

As for whether the polls will provoke tensions in southern Shan State, where fighting between ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar military continues, and in the country overall, one international election observer noted: “It reminds me of Ethiopia – all very calm on the surface, but underneath who knows.”

Security in the area is mostly low key with little visible police or military presence.

While most people are predicting a victory for the NLD in the town, uncertainty abounds for the rest of the state.

Dr Than Ngwe, lower house candidate for the NLD, predicts his party will win not just in Taunggyi town, but also in the rural areas.

“We will win all around the villages, not just in the town. People trust Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to make changes,” he says.

At the USDP headquarters U Sai Zaw Zaw of the party’s central member committee and State Member for the USDP Southern Shan State, predicts – as do the leaders of every party in town – a victory for his own party.

However he goes on to set out his alternative plans if he loses – to keep on with his work supporting nine NGOs in the area.

He does not seem overly confident.

“If the election result goes against us members of the USDP, we can make proposals and join together with other parties,” he adds.

He appears to have good relationships with rival political representatives in the area. One of the NLD candidates is one of his oldest friends he says. His party also has strong links with other parties which could make for interesting political alliances after the elections.

According to local and international observers the USDP is predicted to benefit from its close relationship with the Pa’O ethnic community due to historic links between the PNLO (the armed Pa’O faction) and the Myanmar military.

The Union Pa-O National party and the USDP are not standing against each other in a number of seats. And local observers say the USDP will pick up the Pa’O vote in those areas where the UPNO is not standing. The parties are expected to work together after the election.

However U Sai Zaw Zaw rejects suggestions there is an official agreement between the two parties and notes that, unlike in 2010, the UPNO is standing against the USDP in Taunggyi.

U Sai Zaw Zaw, who had made his money in construction, agrees that USDP support is likely to come from members of the business community. There is also a large military barracks on the outskirts of town which should boost his party.

As across Shan State, it remains unclear whether the SNLD or its offshoot, the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, will pick up the majority of ethnic Shan votes.

Local observers say the SNLD, which did not stand in 2010 over objections to the constitution, is likely to be the most popular because it is the oldest party.

It seems inevitable that having two major Shan parties standing against each other this time will divide the ethnic vote and potentially give an advantage to other parties, particularly as the NLD also did not stand in 2010.

However at the headquarters of the SNDP the atmosphere is ebullient.

The office on the top floor of a town building above an internet café, shares a space with the hq of the Federal Union Party – an umbrella party for 22 ethnic parties – which is fielding its own candidates in some areas, including Taunggyi township.

Sao Yoon Taing, SNDP Taunggyi chairman, rules out any official alliance with either the USDP or the NLD after the election.
“It is just a rumour that we are connected with the USDP,” he says referring to widespread speculation that the SNDP has some sort of unofficial alliance with the USDP.

However civil society leaders in the town have commented on how the USDP and the SNDP have worked closely together to support community development projects.

Sao Yoon Taing predicts the USDP will not be able to retain power in Shan State. The NLD has a chance in the towns of Taunggyi and Lashio (in Northern Shan), but otherwise victory will go to Shan parties, he says.

U Hla Ye Htut, from the SNDP but now chair of Taunggyi FUP, is even more self-assured.

“We will not approach the USDP or the NLD after the election. They will have to come to us,” he says with utter confidence.
“There are 22 of us (parties in the FUP). They, including Aung San Suu Kyi, do not understand what is really important to ethnic people. We want power sharing and resource sharing.”