After weeks of concerns over incorrect voter lists, suspect ID cards and a novice electorate, the National League for Democracy’s Mandalay headquarters began to breathe easy last night as the pay off was evidenced in initial results.
The preliminary numbers trickling in on a live LED screen were overwhelmingly in favour of the fighting peacock. Though the final, nationwide election count may not be released for weeks – and the first official results are not expected until 9am this morning – NLD supporters were already tacking it up as a win.
"It is not government official, but it must be an NLD win – 100 percent," said Ko Si Thu, an ecstatic 36-year-old supporter at the results rally. "Just look around."
Each of Mandalay’s five urban townships had the chance to elect one Pyithu Hluttaw seat and two regional hluttaw seats, as well as contribute votes for one of the two Amyotha Hluttaw MPs. Ethnic Shan minority members also cast votes for Mandalay’s one Shan ethnic minister.
As of 7pm, early Pyithu Hluttaw figures showed the NLD was poised to take all five townships: in Aung Myay Thar San the NLD was ahead 1231 votes to 239 for the USDP; Chan Aye Thar San 15,554 to 2034; Maha Aung Myay 25,953 to 3653; Pyigyitagun 1044 to 192; and Chan Mya Tharsi 1315 to 167.
They also looked to be winning in the only four townships reporting figures for the Amyotha Hluttaw.
Only two townships reported early figures for both local hluttaw seats, with the NLD well ahead in both cases
The optimism began to bubble over yesterday evening after polls closed and counting began.
For Ko Min Thu, a 30-year-old NLD supporter from Aung Myay Thar San, the election outcome was a foregone conclusion before the polls even opened.
"We had no doubt," he said while a crowd of more than 3000 cheered wildly near a massive electronic results screen. "We always knew we would win."
The anticipation was palpable as polling station number five in Maha Aung Myay township announced the count live over a megaphone, after circumstances at the poll raised alarms earlier in the day.
Local residents had noticed six trucks depositing unknown voters in front of the polling station. Suspicions were piqued and authorities discovered that between 100 and 180 ineligible voters, mostly workers at the Myint Nge toll booth north of Mandalay, had been brought in to vote.
The public nature of the controversy led election officials to count votes in a decidedly unorthodox manner – out loud, with the crowds at the gates acting as chanting pseudo-observers. Raucous cheering accompanied each NLD vote tabulation, while USDP votes elicited groans, boos and laughter. Despite the strange votes, the NLD laid preliminary claim to the township 10 to 1.
Even Aung Myay Thar San township, which includes the more than 7000 military voters residing at the military compound within the Mandalay moat, is going red.
Security around the military compound was tight early in the morning with military officials presiding over extra checks. EU observers and press were guided to two of the 14 military polling stations in Au Po Taw ward, inside the old palace walls.
At the military stations, lines began to snake around buildings 30 minutes before polls opened. The crowds were noticeably quiet, with none of the triumphant euphoria reported at other polling stations around the country.
In contrast to the hordes of supporters that followed Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s trip to the ballot box, nobody cheered when Major General Soe Htut, commander of Central Command, arrived to cast his vote. A black Mercedes dropped him and his wife off at a side door; he did not wait in line.
Military stations were at the centre of concerns over the advance voter process, which was both unobserved and conspicuously vague. At the two stations visited by press, however, the advance voter numbers seemed negligible. The first station had 827 eligible voters on the list, of which only 34 completed advance voting. The second station listed 1232 names, with just 57 advance voters.
There is little way to know if these advance voting figures are accurate, or if the military was guiding the media to polling stations with low advance voting numbers.
The Au Po Taw ward also sparked controversy the day before the polls opened after NLD members discovered 22 pre-stamped, blank voter ID cards lying on a street corner near the main palace entrance.
U Tin Win, the Au Po Taw ward chair, had signed all 22 of the cards, creating what were essentially blank cheques. U Tin Win said that the blank cards were not dropped intentionally, but admitted he was unsure as to how many voter cards he had signed or distributed.
The opposition party was alarmed by the discovery.
“We are not sure that they were going to be used,” said U Hein Thet, a member of the township’s NLD executive committee. “We don’t know how many more there might be. Voters could fill them in.”
The expected NLD win has some Mandalay business owners worried. In 1990 – the last time the NLD contested or won a national election – the military ignored the results. Guessing that a similar outcome could lead to widespread rioting, one local pizza shop owner said on November 7 that he was closing his store and moving his family until after “the unrest” quiets down.
Other shops and restaurants were closed throughout Mandalay on election day, with some refusing to serve alcohol Saturday and Sunday night.
That did not stop the NLD crowd from celebrating.
"I think the party will go all night," Min Thu said, shouting over the pop music blaring from nearby speakers. "Tonight is our night."
Additional reporting by Khin Su Wai
