Just a week ago, many analysts were predicting the election result would be a close call between the NLD and the USDP-military alliance. Some pundits suggested neither would have an absolute majority in parliament and that Myanmar’s ethnic parties, able to rely on deep-seated voter loyalty, would end up as king-makers.

While none came out and said it had an agreement in place to make a formal alliance with either of the two main parties, it looked as if parties representing ethnic interests might well be able to negotiate considerable concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.

But amid widespread jubilations over the scale of the National League for Democracy’s victory, initial results would suggest most of the ethic parties have not done well. People are already asking what went wrong.

The question may yet prove to be over simplistic. For a start, as of Thursday night, results showed that the total number of seats won by about a dozen ethnic parties roughly equalled the USDP’s meagre haul.

Comparisons with the 1990 election, the last country-wide election in which the NLD stood, are only so helpful. Constituency boundaries have changed. The USDP, which has been running the country as a nominally civilian government since 2011, did not exist. A number of ethnic parties have since been disbanded and new ones created.

However the 1990 election did indicate how Myanmar’s voting system apparently favours the ethnic parties in terms of seats.  In that poll, the NLD was by far the largest party with 52.5 per cent of votes and 392 seats. However the military party, the NUP, which claimed 21.9pc of votes, got just 10 seats, while the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy won 23 seats, making them the second largest party in terms of seat numbers with just 1.5pc of the national vote.

Although in these elections overall vote numbers for each party are not yet available, the fact that the ethnic parties have not been able to gain a significant number of seats suggests a serious drop in votes since last time.

Certainly, in the main towns in ethnic areas it is becoming clear that the NLD has taken a large number of seats. Kachin State has apparently seen a landslide victory for the NLD as has Kayah.

Meanwhile the USDP – despite suffering major losses – has also taken a number of seats in ethnic areas.

Yet this does not necessarily mean people are turning away completely from ethnic politics. Differences between elected parties in the two different parliamentary houses as well as for the regional parliaments, indicate a number of factors – intended and unintended by voters – may have come into play.

It is yet too early to make a definitive analysis of what has happened. The Union Electoral Commission in Nay Pyi Taw, which is overseeing release of results, has so far only announced the names of winning candidates and the number of votes they received.

Numbers of votes for runners up, which would reveal the key issue of whether rival ethnic parties split votes between them, allowing one of the two large parties to gain victory, are not yet centrally available.

Here however are some of the key issues which may have contributed to the relatively low number of ethnic seats.

Straightforward preference for either of the two main parties:

The NLD's "Time for change" slogan and Aung San Suu Kyi's personal popularity has resonated with many ethnic voters.  On the ground interviews ahead of the election suggested this was more true among educated ethnic voters living in towns and cities than of less-educated rural voters, where loyalty to ethnic parties remains strongest. But in many rural areas at least the message also got through. And while some associate the NLD leader with the Bamar ethnic majority. Her father's role in promoting ethnic autonomy under the Panglong agreement was not forgotten.

In Rakhine, where the Arakan National Party is particularly powerful,  the NLD claimed the seat in the main southern town of Thandwe, and unofficial results for Gwa and Toungup, the two townships where Daw Aung San Suu Kyi made a personal appearance on her campaign trail, indicate they have also gone to the NLD.

The USDP's proven track record - particularly in terms of infrastructure improvement - gained them support among a number of ethnic voters. Some members of the business community in towns in ethnic areas also expressed support for economic continuity of government. Serving members of the military and their families were expected to vote for the party backed by the generals. Many ethnic areas have a heavy military presence due to ongoing ethnic conflict.

Likewise government employees and their families. While there was almost certainly an element of coercion in a number of cases (see below), employee loyalty may also have played a part.

The issue of government employees is particularly significant in rural communities with high illiteracy rates where those with official positions would usually be the most educated and most likely to vote.

Cash, Coercion and Corruption

The USDP faced widespread allegations of paying voters around 2000 and 3000 kyat if they promised to back them. In the days immediately before the election this figure allegedly rose to K7000. The NLD have also not escaped allegations of offering incentives. The party was generous in its hand out of t-shirts, caps and other products which would be considered valuable in poorer rural communities. Many ethnic parties complained they simply did not have the resources to compete.

Government employees and their families also complained that they were scared to vote for any party other than the USDP, it having been intimated to them they would lose their jobs if they did so. While in reality the possibility of tracking individual votes was unlikely the threat swayed many voters.

There is increasing concern among national and international observers about advance votes received from the military. Voter registration numbers were provided direct by the military without independent verification and there have been a number of official complaints lodged with the UEC over apparent irregularities affecting thousands of such votes.

While those issues were not enough to sway the vote in favour of the USDP across the country it is possible they contributed to victories in certain seats.

In Taunggyi, the Shan State Capital, the township seat was claimed by the NLD with a large majority. However the two state and district seats for the same area went to the USDP.

Investigations are currently underway into allegations of irregularities after almost 1000 out of constituency military advanced votes arrived mid-afternoon at the township office in envelopes with the glue still wet, according to a UEC local official. Almost all were for the lower house seat, and in favour of the USDP.  They were all marked with what was observed to be very similar ticks.

Split ethnic vote

Ahead of the election this was predicted as likely to cost the ethnic parties dearly. Nowhere was this risk more evident than in Shan State, where the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy  – which in 1990 had the second highest number of seats in parliament after the NLD – was this time facing competition from an offshoot, the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party. Unlike the SNLD it stood in the 2010 elections and did well.

By Thursday night the SNLD had won 12 out of 48 available lower house seats in Shan State (voting for seven was cancelled because of conflict). The SNDP, had won none. However it remained likely that at least some seats had been lost to both parties because of a divided vote. Not necessarily just to the main parties though. Results in so far showed the NLD had claimed 10 seats and the USDP 8, with five claimed by other ethnic parties standing in the state.

In other ethnic areas large numbers of parties purportedly representing a single ethnic group (although some are recognised to have been proxy parties for the USDP) have also faced each other off. In particularly ethnic diverse areas such as Kayah – Myanmar’s smallest state – many parties representing different ethnic groups competed against each other. Full results from there show the NLD took six out of seven lower house seats, the other going to the USDP. Despite strong ethnic loyalties in the area not a single ethnic party made it to a lower house seat.

 Tactical voting

While again this phenomenon seemed more evident from voters interviewed in ethnic towns than in rural areas, a number of ethnic voters reported that while their preferred party was an ethnic one, they believed an NLD government was their best chance of gaining more powers for ethnic parties in the long run. This may well have contributed significantly to NLD success in many lower and upper house seats in ethnic areas.

Ethnic parties also appear so far to have done somewhat better at State and Regional parliamentary level than at lower and upper house levels, suggesting that some voters may have chosen one of the main parties to represent them in the national parliaments, but stuck to ethnic loyalties within their local parliaments.